Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Now That Is Bearish

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will collapse below its March lows as an expected rebound in economic growth fails to materialize, according to hedge fund manager Eric Sprott.

Unfortunately he is a gold bug.

Entire Article from Bloomberg

Sunday, December 27, 2009

Election Money 2010

Article from OpenSecrets.org

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

A View of High Frequency Trading

Trading Shares in Milliseconds

Today's stock market has become a world of automated transactions executed at lightning speed. This high-frequency trading could make the financial system more efficient, but it could also turn small mistakes into catastrophes.

By Bryant Urstadt

Entire Article

Sunday, December 20, 2009

Bull Run Over ?

The bull run from Nov 21 2008 to Nov 17 2009
looked like this for six stocks;
AAPL 79.14L H207.44 +162%
BAC 10.01L H15.82 +58%
GOOG 247.3L H577.5 +133%
GS 47.41L H178.25 +275%
IBM 69.5L H128.65 +85%
MSFT 17.95L H30 +67%

The chart from Qriskvalue.com measures
general oscillating value of market strength.

Thursday, December 17, 2009

Stuck

4 Big Mortgage Backers Swim in Ocean of Debt

Published: December 16, 2009

Even as the biggest banks repay their government debt in what is being heralded as a successful rescue program, four troubled giants of the financial world remain on government life support.

Entire NewYorkTimes Article

Friday, December 11, 2009

Paying The Top

Goldman's announcement of vesting its top 30 executives with 'at risk' stock is done in hopes of deflecting some criticism leveled at the firm over its compensation policies. The thought of the firm's top boys taking a risk on their own stock is probably making them all nauseous. How will they survive without an immediate piece of the transactional cash bonanza the firm produces each year, a large part of what the firm mistakenly calls trading profits. You see, trading is trading and charging for trading, well, is not trading. The good news for those at the top is that the stock is cheap at current levels.

The continued argument concerning the losing of top talent at investment banks if they are punished by compensation restrictions never is quite able to get traction. Pay me or I will quit is just another form of whining and Congress does not care. Everyone knows that if the last dime in the world were tossed on the ground, two hundred bankers would dive for it.

Harvard announced it was shutting down the the construction of its high-tech project which was to open in 2011. The project was initiated by previous Harvard president Lawrence Summers when the world of the upside had no end in sight. Now Harvard's endowment is down to its last $26 billion but in a larger way points to the long term problems of the ability to generate wealth for all market participants. If Harvard cannot get on track with its sea of generational connections, the greater population's adjustments may be much worse.

Sunday, December 6, 2009

Geithner / Dollar / Housing

Geithner apparently is upset at the 'bonus unleashed' attitude of Wall Street executives who not so long ago prayed for cash and forgiveness. Of course the Treasury Secretary 'doth protest too much' since he basically gave the keys to Goldman and JPMorgan when he made them good at 100 cents on the dollar in many things including AIG's obligations. Geithner talks tough but winks a lot.

The dollar remains the focus of much attention even though it is a who cares trade. But given the bomb it laid in 2009, don't be short the dollar in 2010. That was easy.

Housing gains on data are a laugh since the macro simply is that the banks are not going to fund equity in homes for the foreseeable future. Real equity is what you can get to and most will not be able to get to anything there. Housing will find bottom pickers in 2010 and will wander through over supply for several years.

Each year is a stock pickers year despite the general overall lifting associated with up trends. Cult stocks such as AAPL and GOOG are overbought but they always run hot until the idiot bell rings and they all get out dripping positions until they are looking at real damage. Better to own IBM, MSFT, and yes even GS.